Polling error agonistes, the recall vote mirage, the PTSD election model, what the early vote can tell us, where I’ll be on ...

So I’ve put together a printable one page sheet that lets you track around 60 districts around the battleground in order of win probabilities. If Democrats take NC-11, for example, a composite of four ...

One of the most predictive election indicators is also one of the simplest: which party can best handle the problem Americans think is most important? Gallup now gives Democrats an 11-point lead.

A few post-election interviews, focusing on my book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, and how it explained much of what we saw last Tuesday. And you can ...

This chart from the March Wall Street Journal /NORC poll was destined to go viral. It shows that the values we think of as defining America—patriotism, having children, religion, community, ...

Current polling looks good for Democrats in many red states they’d need to flip control of the chamber. That includes a recent Fox News poll that puts Sherrod Brown up 8 in the Ohio Senate race or a ...

It is cliché by now to say that the country is polarized. Despite the predictable nature of the polarization discourse, there’s strong empirical evidence for the underlying trend. You may have seen ...

It was a few weeks ago that I wrote that polling over the summer hasn’t predicted the last few elections very well, overestimating Democrats. If we were to run an apples to apples comparison of data ...

We are in a media moment where the idea of a “MAGA crackup” is riding high. This was the focus of my podcast with Galen Druke this week, and it figures heavily in my conversation with Ben Domenech in ...

If you’ve ever watched a BBC election broadcast, you’ve seen its legendary Swingometer, moving the dial until one party or the other took control of Parliament. It tried to answer a simple question: ...