So I’ve put together a printable one page sheet that lets you track around 60 districts around the battleground in order of win probabilities. If Democrats take NC-11, for example, a composite of four ...

Polling error agonistes, the recall vote mirage, the PTSD election model, what the early vote can tell us, where I’ll be on ...

Fake pollsters are a problem. So is the audience inclined to believe them because it wants more polls that reinforce its ...

One of the most predictive election indicators is also one of the simplest: which party can best handle the problem Americans think is most important? Gallup now gives Democrats an 11-point lead.

A few post-election interviews, focusing on my book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, and how it explained much of what we saw last Tuesday. And you can ...

If you’ve ever watched a BBC election broadcast, you’ve seen its legendary Swingometer, moving the dial until one party or the other took control of Parliament. It tried to answer a simple question: ...

Something very unusual by historic standards happened in this year’s election: there were lots more Republicans than Democrats in the electorate. After the exit polls were reweighted to reflect the ...

Current polling looks good for Democrats in many red states they’d need to flip control of the chamber. That includes a recent Fox News poll that puts Sherrod Brown up 8 in the Ohio Senate race or a ...

This chart from the March Wall Street Journal /NORC poll was destined to go viral. It shows that the values we think of as defining America—patriotism, having children, religion, community, ...

It is cliché by now to say that the country is polarized. Despite the predictable nature of the polarization discourse, there’s strong empirical evidence for the underlying trend. You may have seen ...