So I’ve put together a printable one page sheet that lets you track around 60 districts around the battleground in order of win probabilities. If Democrats take NC-11, for example, a composite of four ...

☎️ Who—or what—are we missing? On a panel a few weeks ago, I joked that the best reason to do polls might be to continue building a big database about polling ...

Fake pollsters are a problem. So is the audience inclined to believe them because it wants more polls that reinforce its ...

One of the most predictive election indicators is also one of the simplest: which party can best handle the problem Americans think is most important? Gallup now gives Democrats an 11-point lead.

All of our interactive election analysis features this cycle now live in one place, including previews of the House Swingometer, 2026 Polling Index, and our new Senate Explorer tool, as well as ...

It was a few weeks ago that I wrote that polling over the summer hasn’t predicted the last few elections very well, overestimating Democrats. If we were to run an apples to apples comparison of data ...

Today, the country marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks. The pictures of that day bring back the fear Americans felt in the days and weeks that followed. But out of that fear ...

If you’ve ever watched a BBC election broadcast, you’ve seen its legendary Swingometer, moving the dial until one party or the other took control of Parliament. It tried to answer a simple question: ...

A couple of weeks ago, I laid out the case for why the polls may be overstating Democrats again. That point coexists with the fact that this should be a pretty bad election cycle for Republicans. The ...

As the data center debate reaches escape velocity, there’s a question of what’s really driving opposition: is it just the “physical manifestation of AI” or more localized concerns about water usage or ...